Fallen Leaf, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

075
FXUS65 KREV 162043
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
143 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* For today, near average temperatures, light breezes, and a slight
  chance for showers and thunderstorm in the eastern Sierra.

* A weekend storm will impact the Sierra and western Nevada bringing
  an increased likelihood of cooler conditions, gusty winds, light
  rain and mountain snow showers.

* Warmer and drier conditions return next week for the 7-10 day
  outlook.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today will be the warmest day over the next two days as we`ll have
yet another cool weekend. We`ll have some isolated showers and
thunderstorms along the Sierra crest this afternoon (15% chance).
The SPC has the Sierra crest under general thunderstorms today,
although from looking at the CAMs, I don`t see too much of a
lightning threat today. SBCAPE is only around 300-400 J/kg and not
much upper level support for these storms to really develop and
mature. Winds this afternoon will be fairly light as well, only
about 10 mph out of the west.

Looking ahead to tomorrow and the reason why it`s going to cool down
this weekend, is because of another spring low diving south just
east of the Sierra over western NV. This trough will pack some upper
level diffluence and slightly more CAPE (500-600 J/kg) to give a
little more strength to the storms. Storm coverage will progress
from NE CA (50-60% showers, 30% lightning), to western NV (60-70%
showers, 20-30% lightning), down through northern Mineral Co (40%
chance, 20% lightning). Less intense showers will pop up over the
Sierra crest, so be aware that there`s still a 20% chance for
showers and 10% chance for lightning Saturday afternoon up there.
Winds will also be a nuisance tomorrow afternoon, gusting up to
30- 40 mph out of the NW, while Sierra ridges will be gusting to
70-80 mph. DCAPE looks to be around 600-900 J/kg, so expect
outflow gusts around these storms to be up to 40 mph.

Strong winds remain likely this weekend, with westerly gusts on
Saturday shifting to northerly on Sunday. Saturday`s winds appear
to be driven by stronger mid-level flow, with soundings continuing
to hint at a mountaintop inversion that could enhance surface
gusts. Expect widespread gusts of 35-45 mph, with 50+ mph
possible in wind-prone areas, especially south of US-50 along
US-395 and US-95. Choppy lake waters are likely, especially on
Pyramid Lake, Saturday afternoon.

The low then moves out on Sunday, leaving high temperatures the
coolest they`ll be for the next 7 days. Lower valleys top out in the
upper 60`s and Sierra valleys upper 50`s. Winds will increase Sunday
as well, a stiff N-NW flow with gusts up to 30-35 mph in the
afternoon across western NV.

A warming trend will commence Monday and push high temperatures into
the mid-80`s by Wednesday. Zonal flow will persist throughout this
week, keeping us dry and high temperatures in the 80`s through
Friday.

-Justin

&&

.AVIATION...

There`s a 10-15% chance for showers and thunderstorms near
KTRK/KTVL/KMMH this afternoon. Winds will be light and mainly from
the west today, with gusts up to 12 kts at all area terminals in the
afternoon.

Another storm is on the horizon for the weekend with more winds,
light valley rain, and light mountain snow. There is an increased
trend for LLWS and mountain turbulence concerns starting early
Saturday morning continuing into Monday morning.

-Justin/McKellar

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday NVZ004.

CA...None.
&&

$$